Should you grade Lileep δ #68?
Holon Phantoms · grading ROI analysis
Expected value is near zero or negative. The PSA fee + the realistic gem rate mean most submissions of this card will not recoup the cost. Sell raw or hold.
Ungraded
$1.17
PSA 10
$6.22
Gem rate
58.2%
PSA pop
158
The math
Breakeven sale price (raw price + PSA fee)
$1.17 + $25 = $26.17
You need to sell the slabbed card for at least this much to break even.
Projected PSA 10 uplift
($6.22 − $1.17 − $25) ÷ $1.17 × 100 = -1705%
If you grade this card AND it returns PSA 10, this is your gross return on grading.
Expected value (uplift × gem rate)
-1705% × 58.2% = -992.9%
The real number. Adjusts for the fact that not every submission grades PSA 10.
What this calculator doesn't show
- Shipping costs. PSA shipping (in + out) typically adds $5–$15 per submission.
- Selling fees. eBay takes ~13% of gross; TCGplayer ~10%. Subtract from PSA 10 price for net proceeds.
- Holding cost. 30–60 day PSA turnaround means your capital is tied up.
- Sub-grade outcomes. A PSA 9 might still beat ungraded price, but a PSA 8 often doesn't. We model only the binary PSA-10-or-bust outcome — be more conservative for borderline cards.
- Market volatility. PSA 10 prices can swing 20%+ on news cycles. Today's calculated uplift is a snapshot.
For collectors
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Full Lileep δ #68 page →See methodology for how we source data and calculate ROI.