Should you grade Lugia #9?
Neo Genesis · grading ROI analysis
Expected value is positive but modest. Worth grading if you have a clean copy in mint condition or are submitting in bulk; otherwise the marginal upside may not beat the holding period.
Ungraded
$448.79
PSA 10
$19651.00
Gem rate
0.9%
PSA pop
8,366
The math
Breakeven sale price (raw price + PSA fee)
$448.79 + $25 = $473.79
You need to sell the slabbed card for at least this much to break even.
Projected PSA 10 uplift
($19651.00 − $448.79 − $25) ÷ $448.79 × 100 = +4273%
If you grade this card AND it returns PSA 10, this is your gross return on grading.
Expected value (uplift × gem rate)
4273% × 0.9% = +39.3%
The real number. Adjusts for the fact that not every submission grades PSA 10.
Net PSA 10 proceeds after marketplace fees
eBay: $17039.44 · TCGplayer: $17633.47
After 13.25% eBay (or 10.25% TCGplayer) fee + per-order fee + ship. Subtract PSA grading fee ($25) + any PSA shipping for true profit. See methodology.
What this calculator doesn't show
- Shipping costs. PSA shipping (in + out) typically adds $5–$15 per submission.
- Selling fees. eBay takes ~13% of gross; TCGplayer ~10%. Subtract from PSA 10 price for net proceeds.
- Holding cost. 30–60 day PSA turnaround means your capital is tied up.
- Sub-grade outcomes. A PSA 9 might still beat ungraded price, but a PSA 8 often doesn't. We model only the binary PSA-10-or-bust outcome — be more conservative for borderline cards.
- Market volatility. PSA 10 prices can swing 20%+ on news cycles. Today's calculated uplift is a snapshot.
For collectors
Got more cards? See ROI on your whole collection.
Paste your CSV from Collectr, Dragon Shield, or TCGplayer. Get a GRADE / CONSIDER / HOLD-RAW verdict for every card — free, no signup to preview.
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Full Lugia #9 page →See methodology for how we source data and calculate ROI.